The Gillard Factor

Questions are being asked in the corridors of bean counters: Can Julia Gillard deliver the ALP in Victoria an extra 0.3% increasing the ALP primary vote in the Senate from 41.7% to 42.0%?

If the Greens increase their support from 10% to 14% and the Liberal Party falls below 38% then there is a possibility that the Liberal Party will only secure two Senate seats, ALP three and the Greens one. This is dependent on the ALP securing three quotas in its own right as the ALP and the Liberal/National party falling below 38%.

Early polling undertaken in July by Morgan research had shown this as a outside possibility but with a 2.0% marigin of error this outcome is unlikely. At best the ALP can expect to hang on to the vote it received in 2007 but will still fail to elect three Senators due to a flaw in the way the Senate vote is counted which will deliver a bonus 7,000 votes to the Greens. The Liberal party will pickup votes from One nation. DLP and Family First.  Family First, Steve Fielding, coming in at 8th will not win a second term.

A margin of error: ABC misleads the electorate

The ABC breakfast program has demonstrated a lack of professionalism by publishing false and misleading information by claiming a contest in the seat of Melbourne between the ALP and the Greens.

In 2007 (Melbourne) primary vote:

• The Australian Labor Party in 2007 of 43,363 (49.51%)
• The Greens 19,967 (22.80%)
• The Liberal Party polled 20,577 (23.49%)

After distribution of preferences The Greens out poll the Liberal Party by a margin of 591 (0.67%) only following the distribution of Democrats preferences.

The contest in Melbourne is not between the ALP and the Greens 4% margin but between the Greens and the Liberal Party with a margin of 0.67% .

The Greens had the so called "Donkey Vote", where voters preference from the top down the list, which can represent up to 1.5% of the electorate.  The Greens ill once agsin have teh Dionkey vote in their favour.

The ABC did not interview the Liberal Party candidate. Why?

AEC Full results

One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party to elect Victoria’s First Green Senator

Analysis of the 2010 registered Victorian Senate How to Vote preference allocation indicates that the Greens (based on the 2007 Senate Election results) will elect Three Liberal, Two ALP and One Greens Senator.

Electoral Analyst Anthony van der Craats, said that One Nation, Family First and the Democratic Labor Party unwittingly will contribute to the election of a Green Senator even though all three have preferenced the ALP before the Greens. In 2007, using the same votes, the Liberal party and the ALP both elected three Senators.

The reason why the Greens candidate is elected is due primarily to the distortion in the way in which the Senate vote is counted.

The Australian Electoral Commission, when calculating the surplus transfer value, divides a candidate’s surplus value by the number of ballot papers as opposed to the value of the vote. This has the effect of increasing the Liberal Party ticket vote which is then distributed to the Greens at an inflated value giving the Greens a bonus 7,000 votes derived from One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party supporters.

By way of analogy Mr van der Craats said

If we calculated the dividend of shares based on the number for shareholders as opposed to the value of shares our financial system would collapse overnight. It would not be accepted for counting money however this is how Australian Senate votes are counted.

The system is not proportional to the value of the vote. If we are to have a fair and accurate election system then the method of calculating the surplus value and distributing preferences needs to be changed and the system fixed

The Australian Senate system is semi-proportional only.

The identified flaw in the system was outlined to the Australian Parliament "Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters" (JSCEM) in a submission made in 2008. The JSEM failed to act to correct the system.

Mr. van der Craats's analysis has been independently confirmed by ABC Electoral Analyst Antony Green.