Sunday, August 8, 2010

One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party to elect Victoria’s First Green Senator

Analysis of the 2010 registered Victorian Senate How to Vote preference allocation indicates that the Greens (based on the 2007 Senate Election results) will elect Three Liberal, Two ALP and One Greens Senator.

Electoral Analyst Anthony van der Craats, said that One Nation, Family First and the Democratic Labor Party unwittingly will contribute to the election of a Green Senator even though all three have preferenced the ALP before the Greens. In 2007, using the same votes, the Liberal party and the ALP both elected three Senators.

The reason why the Greens candidate is elected is due primarily to the distortion in the way in which the Senate vote is counted.

The Australian Electoral Commission, when calculating the surplus transfer value, divides a candidate’s surplus value by the number of ballot papers as opposed to the value of the vote. This has the effect of increasing the Liberal Party ticket vote which is then distributed to the Greens at an inflated value giving the Greens a bonus 7,000 votes derived from One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party supporters.

By way of analogy Mr van der Craats said

If we calculated the dividend of shares based on the number for shareholders as opposed to the value of shares our financial system would collapse overnight. It would not be accepted for counting money however this is how Australian Senate votes are counted.

The system is not proportional to the value of the vote. If we are to have a fair and accurate election system then the method of calculating the surplus value and distributing preferences needs to be changed and the system fixed

The Australian Senate system is semi-proportional only.

The identified flaw in the system was outlined to the Australian Parliament "Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters" (JSCEM) in a submission made in 2008. The JSEM failed to act to correct the system.

Mr. van der Craats's analysis has been independently confirmed by ABC Electoral Analyst Antony Green.


Antony Green's Calcultor based on the 2007 vote allocation. (inlcudes the system  7,000 vote bonus to the Liberal Group Voting Ticket derived by devaluing disporpotionally One Nation. DLP and Family First votes.

Senate Calculator: Victoria



Elected Candidates


Candidate Party
1 Kim John CARR Australian Labor Party
2 Michael RONALDSON Liberal Party
3 Stephen Michael CONROY Australian Labor Party
4 Bridget McKENZIE The Nationals
5 Julian McGAURAN Liberal Party
6 Richard DI NATALE Australian Greens

Detailed Results

  • Quota: 456,094 votes

Count 1: Initial allocation

Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
1,351,773 42.34%
2.9638
Liberal/National
0
1,280,257 40.10%
2.8070
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
0
81,732 2.56%
0.1791
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055
Citizens Electoral Council
0
1,596 0.05%
0.0034

Count 2: Kim John CARR (Australian Labor Party) elected #1

Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Liberal/National
0
1,280,257 40.10%
2.8070
Australian Labor Party
-456,094
895,679 28.05%
1.9638
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
0
81,732 2.56%
0.1791
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055
Citizens Electoral Council
0
1,596 0.05%
0.0034

Count 3: Michael RONALDSON (Liberal/National) elected #2

Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
895,679 28.05%
1.9638
Liberal/National
-456,094
824,163 25.81%
1.8070
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
0
81,732 2.56%
0.1791
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055
Citizens Electoral Council
0
1,596 0.05%
0.0034

Count 4: Stephen Michael CONROY (Australian Labor Party) elected #3

Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Liberal/National
0
824,163 25.81%
1.8070
Australian Labor Party
-456,094
439,585 13.77%
0.9638
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
0
81,732 2.56%
0.1791
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055
Citizens Electoral Council
0
1,596 0.05%
0.0034

Count 5: Bridget McKENZIE (Liberal/National) elected #4

Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
439,585 13.77%
0.9638
Liberal/National
-456,094
368,069 11.53%
0.8070
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
0
81,732 2.56%
0.1791
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055
Citizens Electoral Council
0
1,596 0.05%
0.0034

Count 6: Doug MITCHELL (Citizens Electoral Council) excluded

  • 1,596 (0.05%) votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 3.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
439,585 13.77%
0.9638
Liberal/National
0
368,069 11.53%
0.8070
Australian Greens
0
326,609 10.23%
0.7161
Family First
+1,596
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055
Socialist Equality Party
0
2,553 0.08%
0.0055

Count 7: Patrick O'CONNOR (Socialist Equality Party) excluded

  • 851 (0.03%) votes originally from Socialist Equality Party (Ticket 1 of 3) distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 5.
  • 851 (0.03%) votes originally from Socialist Equality Party (Ticket 2 of 3) distributed to Australian Greens (Richard DI NATALE) via preference 3.
  • 851 (0.03%) votes originally from Socialist Equality Party (Ticket 3 of 3) distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 5.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
+851
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
+851
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
+851
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Group B Independents
0
5,746 0.18%
0.0125
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Socialist Alliance
0
2,554 0.08%
0.0055

Count 8: Margarita WINDISCH (Socialist Alliance) excluded

  • 2,554 (0.08%) votes originally from Socialist Alliance distributed to Group B Independents (Joseph TOSCANO) via preference 4.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
53,636 1.68%
0.1175
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Group B Independents
+2,554
8,300 0.26%
0.0181
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069
Senator On-Line
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069

Count 9: Glenn R SARGENT (Senator On-Line) excluded

  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Senator On-Line distributed to Australian Democrats (Roger HOWE) via preference 3.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
+3,192
56,828 1.78%
0.1245
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
33,522 1.05%
0.0734
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Group B Independents
0
8,300 0.26%
0.0181
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
0
3,192 0.10%
0.0069

Count 10: Ross CURRIE (Liberal Democrats (LDP)) excluded

  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia (John MADIGAN) via preference 10.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
56,828 1.78%
0.1245
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
+3,192
36,714 1.15%
0.0804
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Group B Independents
0
8,300 0.26%
0.0181
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153
Carers Alliance
0
3,830 0.12%
0.0083

Count 11: Christopher MONTEAGLE (Carers Alliance) excluded

  • 1,915 (0.06%) votes originally from Carers Alliance (Ticket 1 of 2) distributed to Australian Democrats (Roger HOWE) via preference 5.
  • 1,915 (0.06%) votes originally from Carers Alliance (Ticket 2 of 2) distributed to Australian Democrats (Roger HOWE) via preference 5.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
+3,830
60,658 1.90%
0.1329
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
36,714 1.15%
0.0804
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Group B Independents
0
8,300 0.26%
0.0181
Christian Democratic Party
0
7,023 0.22%
0.0153

Count 12: Vickie JANSON (Christian Democratic Party) excluded

  • 7,023 (0.22%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia (John MADIGAN) via preference 3.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
327,460 10.26%
0.7179
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
60,658 1.90%
0.1329
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
+7,023
43,737 1.37%
0.0958
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300
Group B Independents
0
8,300 0.26%
0.0181

Count 13: Joseph TOSCANO (Group B Independents) excluded

  • 5,746 (0.18%) votes originally from Group B Independents distributed to Australian Greens (Richard DI NATALE) via preference 4.
  • 2,554 (0.08%) votes originally from Socialist Alliance distributed to Australian Greens (Richard DI NATALE) via preference 7.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
+8,300
335,760 10.52%
0.7361
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
60,658 1.90%
0.1329
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
43,737 1.37%
0.0958
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475
One Nation
0
13,728 0.43%
0.0300

Count 14: Rosalyn TOWNSEND (One Nation) excluded

  • 13,728 (0.43%) votes originally from One Nation distributed to Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia (John MADIGAN) via preference 3.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
368,920 11.56%
0.8088
Australian Greens
0
335,760 10.52%
0.7361
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
60,658 1.90%
0.1329
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
+13,728
57,465 1.80%
0.1259
Shooters and Fishers
0
21,710 0.68%
0.0475

Count 15: Peter Maxwell KELLY (Shooters and Fishers) excluded

  • 21,710 (0.68%) votes originally from Shooters and Fishers distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 3.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
+21,710
390,630 12.24%
0.8564
Australian Greens
0
335,760 10.52%
0.7361
Family First
0
83,328 2.61%
0.1826
Australian Democrats
0
60,658 1.90%
0.1329
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
0
57,465 1.80%
0.1259

Count 16: John MADIGAN (Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia) excluded

  • 33,522 (1.05%) votes originally from Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 12.
  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Australian Democrats (Roger HOWE) via preference 28.
  • 7,023 (0.22%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 6.
  • 13,728 (0.43%) votes originally from One Nation distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 19.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
0
440,436 13.80%
0.9656
Liberal/National
0
390,630 12.24%
0.8564
Australian Greens
0
335,760 10.52%
0.7361
Family First
+54,273
137,601 4.31%
0.3016
Australian Democrats
+3,192
63,850 2.00%
0.1399

Count 17: Roger HOWE (Australian Democrats) excluded

  • 53,636 (1.68%) votes originally from Australian Democrats distributed to Australian Greens (Richard DI NATALE) via preference 10.
  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Senator On-Line distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 15.
  • 1,915 (0.06%) votes originally from Carers Alliance (Ticket 1 of 2) distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 11.
  • 1,915 (0.06%) votes originally from Carers Alliance (Ticket 2 of 2) distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 11.
  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Family First (Steven FIELDING) via preference 34.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Labor Party
+1,915
442,351 13.86%
0.9698
Liberal/National
+1,915
392,545 12.30%
0.8606
Australian Greens
+53,636
389,396 12.20%
0.8537
Family First
+6,384
143,985 4.51%
0.3156

Count 18: Steven FIELDING (Family First) excluded

  • 81,732 (2.56%) votes originally from Family First distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 25.
  • 1,596 (0.05%) votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 40.
  • 33,522 (1.05%) votes originally from Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 13.
  • 7,023 (0.22%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 13.
  • 13,728 (0.43%) votes originally from One Nation distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 44.
  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Senator On-Line distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 48.
  • 3,192 (0.10%) votes originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Liberal/National (Julian McGAURAN) via preference 44.
  • Julian McGAURAN (Liberal/National) provisionally elected.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Liberal/National
+140,793
533,338 16.71%
1.1693
Australian Labor Party
+3,192
445,543 13.96%
0.9768
Australian Greens
0
389,396 12.20%
0.8537

Count 19: Julian McGAURAN (Liberal/National) elected #5

  • 68,410 (2.14%) votes (1,280,257 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Liberal/National distributed to Australian Greens (Richard DI NATALE) via preference 38.
  • 45 (0.00%) votes (851 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Socialist Equality Party (Ticket 1 of 3) distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 11.
  • 1,160 (0.04%) votes (21,710 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Shooters and Fishers distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 10.
  • 102 (0.00%) votes (1,915 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Carers Alliance (Ticket 2 of 2) distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 15.
  • 4,367 (0.14%) votes (81,732 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Family First distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 29.
  • 85 (0.00%) votes (1,596 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 52.
  • 1,791 (0.06%) votes (33,522 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 23.
  • 375 (0.01%) votes (7,023 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 35.
  • 734 (0.02%) votes (13,728 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from One Nation distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 52.
  • 171 (0.01%) votes (3,192 raw votes at 0.0534 value) originally from Liberal Democrats (LDP) distributed to Australian Labor Party (Antony THOW) via preference 45.
  • Richard DI NATALE (Australian Greens) provisionally elected.
Party
Transfer
Total Votes % Votes
Quotas
Australian Greens
+68,410
457,806 14.34%
1.0037
Australian Labor Party
+8,830
454,373 14.23%
0.9962

Count 20: Richard DI NATALE (Australian Greens) elected #6

  • The last vacancy has been filled.

No comments:

Post a Comment